How Does Vaccine Efficacy Numbers, Explained | WSJ Work?

Imagine you're playing a game where some kids get to wear superhero capes and others don't, the ones who wear capes are less likely to catch a cold. That's what vaccine efficacy numbers tell us.

How Vaccine Efficacy Works

When scientists test a vaccine, they split a group of people into two parts: one gets the real vaccine, and the other gets something that looks like it, but isn’t (like a fake cape). Then they watch to see who catches the illness.

If 10 out of 100 kids without the vaccine get sick, and only 2 out of 100 with the vaccine do, that means the vaccine works really well. Scientists calculate how much better it is, this number is called vaccine efficacy.

Why It Matters

Think of the vaccine like a strong shield. The more effective it is, the fewer kids will get sick. A vaccine with 90% efficacy means it blocks sickness for most people, just like a superhero cape that stops almost all colds!

If a vaccine has lower efficacy, say 50%, then about half the kids who wear the "cape" might still catch a cold, but they’re still better off than those without any shield at all.

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Examples

  1. A vaccine trial with 100 people: 10 get sick, 2 get sick without the vaccine, that’s 80% efficacy.
  2. If a flu shot is 70% effective, it means 3 out of 10 people who got it are still likely to catch the flu.
  3. Imagine a vaccine trial where only 1 in 10 people who took the vaccine got sick, that's pretty good!

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