What are expected value calculations?

Expected value calculations are like figuring out what happens on average if you try something many times.

Imagine you have a toy box with 3 red blocks and 1 blue block. Every time you pick one, you get points: red gives you 1 point, blue gives you 5 points. If you play this game over and over, how many points would you probably get each time?

That’s where expected value comes in, it helps you guess the average result without actually playing forever.

Let’s break it down:

• You have 4 blocks total.
• 3 red means a 75% chance of picking red.
• 1 blue means a 25% chance of picking blue.

Now multiply your chances by the points each color gives:

• Red: 0.75 × 1 = 0.75
• Blue: 0.25 × 5 = 1.25

Add them up: 0.75 + 1.25 = 2

So, on average, you’d get 2 points per turn, that’s your expected value!

It's like having a smart friend who knows the odds and tells you what to expect before you even start playing.